Pelosi vs. S&P - January

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.4pp shift. Resolution depends on the most recent 1-month trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the most recent 1-month trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior t — https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559433043512836096.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.