The market moved
+2.0ppin 24h · now 61¢
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-16?
Sports · resolves May 16 · vol $14.6K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 61¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 20.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.