Progressive (PGR) Q2 combined ratio <86%?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 49¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to progressive's combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings mat — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to Progressive's combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings mat.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.