Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 49¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (ocr) resulting from the october 2026 meeting of the reserve ban — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Ban — https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.