Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 17¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: NATO — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.