Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 32¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of the treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from cftc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.