The market moved
-22.8ppin 24h · now 16¢
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?
Macro · resolves May 18 · vol $43.8K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 16¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.8pp shift. Resolution depends on wall street journal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 7.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.