The market moved
-51.8ppin 24h · now 3¢
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 18?
Macro · resolves Aug 18 · vol $42.2K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 51.8pp shift. Resolution depends on wall street journal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 5.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.