S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 1?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 46¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wall street journal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 0.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.