The market moved
-29.9ppin 24h · now 1¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on July 14?
Macro · resolves Jul 14 · vol $127.09
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 29.9pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 6.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.