S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on August 12?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.5pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.