The market moved
-0.1ppin 24h · now 0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Geopolitics · resolves May 15 · vol $153.2K
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.