The market moved
-10.5ppin 24h · now 43¢
Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 0.5
Other · resolves Jul 31 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 43¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 35.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.