Will Magnus Carlsen finish in the Top 5 of Titled Tuesday on August 11?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 24¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.