Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 79.5pp shift. Resolution depends on natesilver.net — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: natesilver.net — https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.