Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 32.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the fivethirtyeight election forecast on any date between october 9, and november 4, 2024 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between October 9, and November 4, 2024 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.