Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at the DNC on day 4?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on demconvention.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: demconvention.com — https://demconvention.com/schedule/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.