Trump positive favorability on Day 100?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on realclearpolitics is higher than his unfavorable rating on april 29, 2025 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: RealClearPolitics is higher than his unfavorable rating on April 29, 2025 — https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.