Trump positive favorability on March 1?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.6pp shift. Resolution depends on to the most recent data point prior to march 1, 2025 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.