Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on the first sentencing rendered in this case, regardless of later appeals, etc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the first sentencing rendered in this case, regardless of later appeals, etc.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.