Trump tariffs on Mexico in effect by May 1?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 32.5pp shift. Resolution depends on cnbc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: cnbc — https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-sheinbaum-responds.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.