The market moved

-12.0ppin 24h · now 42¢

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Politics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $26.0K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 42¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 12.0pp shift. Resolution depends on credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: credible reporting — https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.