The market moved
-1.0ppin 24h · now 16¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 30 · vol $1.2K
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 16¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on white house — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: White House.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.