The market moved
-10.1ppin 24h · now 3¢
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 31 · vol $2.5K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.1pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.