The market moved
-3.8ppin 24h · now 90¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?
AI · resolves Jul 4 · vol $6.0K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 90¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://lmarena.ai/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.