The market moved
-37.5ppin 24h · now 11¢
Will the margin of victory at the 2026 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest be <10 HDBs?
Other · open · vol $125.00
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 37.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.