US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 30¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 21.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 32.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.