The market moved
-9.2ppin 24h · now 67¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $51.3K
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 67¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.2pp shift. Resolution depends on department of defense — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Defense.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.