The market moved
-4.0ppin 24h · now 52¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 31 · vol $39.2K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 52¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on department of defense — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Defense.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.