US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 2.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.