The market moved
+1.0ppin 24h · now 73¢
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Other · resolves Jan 1 · vol $40.00
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 73¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the fdic's "failed bank list") — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: the FDIC's "Failed Bank List") — https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.