US bank failure by July 31?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 19¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the fdic's "failed bank list") — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the FDIC's "Failed Bank List") — https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.