U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of transportation secretary sean duffy said that if the government shutdown continues — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that if the government shutdown continues — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-mass-chaos-may-need-close-some-airspace-if-government-shutdown-2025-11-04/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.