The market moved
-0.5ppin 24h · now 3¢
US defaults on debt by 2027?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $40.35
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of the treasury — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Department of the Treasury.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.