The market moved
-2.0ppin 24h · now 23¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Sep 30 · vol $14.3K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 23¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.