US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 23¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on thehill.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: thehill.com — https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.