US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 23?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.3pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: US Government — https://mx.usembassy.gov/security-alert-ongoing-security-operations-u-s-mission-mexico-february-22-2026/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.