US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 26.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.