US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 28¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 19.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 43.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.