Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 46¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://vlr.gg.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 13.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.