Venezuela opposition leader Machado released by Monday?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-opposition-leader-machado-arrested/a-71260151).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.