The market moved
+89.9ppin 24h · now 100¢
Who will 538 predict to win the election?
Politics · resolves Nov 5 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 89.9pp shift. Resolution depends on fivethirtyeight's final election forecast kamala harris has a greater chance than donald trump of winning the 2024 u — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.