Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the fivethirtyeight election forecast for the day of july 19, 2024 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.