Who will 538 project as favorite on July 26?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on the fivethirtyeight election forecast for the day of july 26, 2024 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 26, 2024 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.