Who will lead on 538 on Friday?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on fivethirtyeight's election forecast on october 25, 2024 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: FiveThirtyEight's election forecast on October 25, 2024 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.