Who will win the debate according to polls?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the results of ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its concl — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its concl.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.