The market moved
+1.5ppin 24h · now 37¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Macro · resolves Dec 31 · vol $56.20
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 37¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.