The market moved
+4.5ppin 24h · now 91¢
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 5 · vol $1.7K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 91¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.