The market moved
+4.0ppin 24h · now 23¢
Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 16 · vol $240.02
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 23¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.