The market moved
+4.5ppin 24h · now 10¢
Will 230-239 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 26 · vol $142.33
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 10¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.